Firearms Skills Degradation over time

FIREARMS DEFICIENCY

How much deficiency by percentage will the average shooter that attends a basic 40hr TCOLE handgun course experience after 1, 4, 6 months and finally 1 year without training since they attended the course

Shooting proficiency—especially for handguns—relies on muscle memory, fine motor skills, and cognitive processes like sight alignment and trigger control. Without regular practice, these skills degrade over time. Studies on motor skill retention (e.g., from sports science or military training) and anecdotal evidence from firearms instructors suggest a pattern of decline that can be adapted here.

### Estimated Deficiency Over Time

Here’s a reasonable breakdown of how an average shooter’s proficiency might decline after a 40-hour TCOLE basic handgun course, assuming no additional training:

1. 1 Month Post-Course:

- Estimated Deficiency: ~10-20%

- Reasoning: At this stage, the shooter retains most of what they learned, as the training is still fresh. However, minor degradation in precision (e.g., trigger control, recoil management) begins due to lack of reinforcement. Studies on skill retention suggest a small drop-off within the first few weeks if practice stops.

2. 4 Months Post-Course:

- Estimated Deficiency: ~30-40%

- Reasoning: By this point, muscle memory starts to fade significantly without practice. Fine motor skills like consistent trigger pull and sight alignment deteriorate, and shooters may revert to pre-training habits. This aligns with observations from firearms instructors who note noticeable declines in accuracy and speed after a few months of inactivity.

3. 6 Months Post-Course:

- Estimated Deficiency: ~50-60%

- Reasoning: At the half-year mark, the average shooter is likely to lose over half their peak proficiency from the course. Cognitive recall of techniques (e.g., stance, grip) weakens, and physical skills degrade further. Military and law enforcement studies often cite six months as a critical threshold for significant skill loss without refresher training.

4. 1 Year Post-Course:

- Estimated Deficiency: ~70-80%

- Reasoning: After a full year without training, the average shooter retains only basic familiarity with the firearm. Most advanced skills taught in the course—such as rapid target acquisition, timed reloads, or stress shooting—are largely lost. This is consistent with the idea that shooting is a perishable skill, requiring regular practice to maintain even moderate competence.

### Factors Influencing Deficiency

- Baseline Skill Level: A shooter with prior experience before the course might degrade more slowly (e.g., 5-10% less deficiency) than a complete novice.

- Course Intensity: The TCOLE 40-hour course focuses on fundamentals (safety, marksmanship, handling), but its effectiveness depends on the shooter’s ability to internalize skills in that time.

- Individual Variation: Natural aptitude, physical fitness, and memory retention vary widely, so these percentages are averages.

- Measurement Metric: Deficiency here assumes a drop in qualification scores (e.g., TCOLE’s 50-round course of fire) or practical accuracy under time constraints.

### Why Exact Data Is Unavailable

The TCOLE doesn’t publish longitudinal studies tracking shooter performance post-course, and no specific research directly addresses this exact scenario. General firearms training literature (e.g., from the NRA or law enforcement agencies) supports the idea of skill decay but rarely quantifies it in percentage terms over these intervals. My estimates are derived from combining these broader insights with practical observations from instructors and shooters.